EUR/USD is trading at 1.1630, the highest since 2015. It moved to 1.1570 on Draghi’s failure to convince that tapering is coming. The fresh news about deeper Trump trouble is compounding the move. Special counsel Robert Mueller is examining Donald Trump’s business transactions including First Son in Law Jared Kushner and former campaign manager Paul Manafort. Bloomberg has the scoop about a significant expansion of the investigation into the President’s dealings. Earlier, the New York Times reported that Manafort had a significant debt to Russians according to information obtained from offshore accounts. The President’s son was the star of last week’s troubles. Don Junior laid out a “smoking gun” about negotiations with the Russians. The President is in deeper trouble as his personal affairs come under scrutiny. After health care failed earlier in the week, tax reform could also be jeopardy. EUR/USD way above 1.16, also on Draghi Draghi did not convince with his dovishness. He said they did not discuss anything but did acknowledge the improvement in the economy and said they would have a serious discussion in the autumn. This is the result: EUR/USD is trading at 1.1640, after having reached 1.1656. This is above the levels seen in 2016, which were 1.1620. The next level of resistance is 1.1720, 2015 high. 

Weekly RSI: overbought for the first time since 2011 The 14-day RSI is overbought. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI is overbought as well. More importantly, the weekly RSI is seriously overbought for the first time since April 2011. Hence, a technical correction cannot be ruled out. But, the yield spread favors further losses The US-German 10-year yield spread fell to 1.7020 this week - the lowest level since early November. The Fed is widely expected to slow down the process of policy normalization, while the ECB is expected to begin the QE taper in September. Thus, in the short-run, the yield spread is likely to remain under pressure as suggested by the falling trend line on the chart below. 

EUR/USD Technical Levels Resistance: 1.1641 (Nov 2005 low), 1.1685 (23.6% Fib R of 2008 high - 2017 low), 1.1714 (2015 high) Support: 1.1561 (5-DMA), 1.1494 (10-DMA), 1.1478 (1-hour 200-MA)